I feel bad for pollsters. When determining likely voters, they have to rely on the assumption that voters in this election will be similar to the voters in the last one. Which is the one thing you can be sure is never true.
I feel bad for pollsters. When determining likely voters, they have to rely on the assumption that voters in this election will be similar to the voters in the last one. Which is the one thing you can be sure is never true.
@exiliaex It's not a matter of weighting. To predict a baseline at all requires you to assume some similarities with last cycle. That's generally safe broadly, but every so often is very wrong specifically. Eg. when people started shifting en masse to cell phones.